| 其他摘要 | This paper reviews the different scales of time and spatial for various solar activities and its Prediction Methods. Including solar activities and its rules, the study of prediction method for solar activity, on long-term solar activity at high latitudes and a method for predicting the maximum flux of solar proton event. Details are as follows: The first part is the review section, including two chapters: chapter one and chapter two. The first chapter introduced the solar activity and its rules and laws, including the short-term solar activity, the medium-term solar activity, long-term solar activity. And also details the main activities’ regulation including solar flares, the coronal mass ejections, solar proton events, prominence and sunspots and other phenomenon of solar activity The second chapter describes the different time scales of solar activity forecasting aspects, including the short-term forecasts and warnings of solar activity, medium-term solar activity forecasting and long-term solar activity prediction and their current forecasting methods and forecasting capabilities available. The second part is my research work, including two chapters: chapter three and chapter four. The third chapter is my participation of the research work on long-term solar activity at high latitudes. The interesting characteristics of long-term solar activity at high latitudes are reported as follows. (1) Two cyclic behaviours, but in anti-phase with each other, simultaneously exist at high latitudes: the magnetic fluxes in units of gauss of the line-of-sight magnetic fields at latitudes of 60–70, possibly representing the amplitude of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, are in complete anti-phase with the solar activity at middle and low latitudes, usually represented by sunspot numbers. However, the numbers of filaments at latitudes of 60–90, possibly representing the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, are strangely in complete anti-phase with the magnetic fluxes. (2) Two latitude migrations, but in opposite drift directions relative to each other, exist in a cycle: a poleward migration drifts from the middle latitudes toward the solar poles in the first half of a normal cycle, following an equatorward migration found from the solar poles towards the middle latitudes in the other half of the normal cycle. (3) It is inferred that polar faculae, a frequently observed phenomenon at high latitudes, are more related to the amplitude than to the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes, and they are in phase with the magnetic fluxes. (4) High-latitude flares, a violent active phenomenon at high latitudes, keep in step with neither the amplitude nor the complexity of solar magnetic activity at high latitudes; they seemingly occur just around the maximum times of both. The forth chapter is about of a method for predicting the maximum flux of a typical solar proton event. Sixty-two typical solar proton events during 1988-2006 are analyzed. It is found that the top flux figure change has good statistic regulation after the data is unitary. A method for predicting the top flux of solar proton event is put forward. All the events are predicted for the top flux. The result of the examination indicates: the predicted values and observed values are in the same dimension, and the relative standard deviation is ±32%. The error level is acceptable and reliable to daily monitoring mission of space weather. |
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