| A transformer-based forecasting model for F 10.7 index and its application study on the Chinese Langfang dataset | |
Ye, Hongwei1; Zheng, Yanfang1; Li, Xuebao1; Dong L(董亮)2,6 ; Huang, Wengeng3; Wang, Jing3; Yan, Shuainan3,4; Lou, Hengrui5; Yan, Pengchao1; Zhang, Shunhuang1; Li, Xuefeng1; Ling, Yi1; Huang, Xusheng1; Pan, Yexin7
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| 发表期刊 | ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH
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| 2024-12-15 | |
| 卷号 | 74期号:12页码:6309-6324 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.asr.2024.08.024 |
| 产权排序 | 第2完成单位 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 关键词 | F 10.7 forecasting Bidirectional gating recurrent unit Transformer |
| 摘要 | The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F 10.7) is a key indicator of solar activity. Accurately forecasting of F 10 . 7 is crucial for reducing the impact of solar activity on fields such as radio communication, navigation, and satellite communication. In this work, we present a novel channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) for F 10 . 7 forecasting. This is the first time that the PatchTST model is applied to F 10.7 forecasting. We construct the F 10 . 7 dataset, which is measured by the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory (DRAO) in Canada. We compare the performance of PatchTST, N-Beats, BiGRU, and CNN-BiGRU on DRAO data. The root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient (R) of our PatchTST model are 4.731, 2.351%, and 0.986, respectively, which outperforms those of the other models when the prediction length is 1 day. Especially in midterm forecasting, the PatchTST model performs much better than those of the other models. We make uncertainty analyses on these models, and the PatchTST model exhibits superior adaptability to model uncertainty compared to the N-Beats, BiGRU, and CNNBiGRU. The PatchTST model shows a 62.9% improvement in mean error (ME) and a 40.5% improvement in standard mean error (STDE) compared to the benchmark data provided by Space Environment Technologies (SET). This work also shows that our PatchTST model generalizes well by applying it to other F 10.7 observational data originating from Long and Short-band Solar Precision Flux Radiotelescope (L&S) in China. (c) 2024 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[11703009]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11803010]; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China[SBK2024023582]; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China[BK20170566]; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China[BK20201199]; National Natural Science Astronomy Joint Fund[U2031133]; Kunming Foreign (International) Cooperation Base Project[GHJD-2021022]; Qing Lan Project |
| 项目资助者 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[11703009, 11803010] ; Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China[SBK2024023582, BK20170566, BK20201199] ; National Natural Science Astronomy Joint Fund[U2031133] ; Kunming Foreign (International) Cooperation Base Project[GHJD-2021022] ; Qing Lan Project |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 学科领域 | 天文学 ; 射电与天文学 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 出版地 | 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND |
| ISSN | 0273-1177 |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001407046100001 |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Engineering, Aerospace ; Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28055 |
| 专题 | 射电天文研究组 |
| 作者单位 | 1.School of Computer, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212100, China; 2.Yunnan Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, China; 3.National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 5.School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University, Ningbo 315000, China; 6.Yunnan Sino-Malaysian International Joint Laboratory of HF-VHF Advanced Radio Astronomy Technology, Kunming 650216, China; 7.MailBox 5111, Beijing 100094, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ye, Hongwei,Zheng, Yanfang,Li, Xuebao,et al. A transformer-based forecasting model for F 10.7 index and its application study on the Chinese Langfang dataset[J]. ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,2024,74(12):6309-6324. |
| APA | Ye, Hongwei.,Zheng, Yanfang.,Li, Xuebao.,董亮.,Huang, Wengeng.,...&Pan, Yexin.(2024).A transformer-based forecasting model for F 10.7 index and its application study on the Chinese Langfang dataset.ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,74(12),6309-6324. |
| MLA | Ye, Hongwei,et al."A transformer-based forecasting model for F 10.7 index and its application study on the Chinese Langfang dataset".ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH 74.12(2024):6309-6324. |
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