Institutional Repository System Of Yunnan Observatories, CAS
| An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North-South Asymmetry | |
| Cao, Jie1; Xu, Tingting1; Deng, Linhua1; Zhou, Xueliang1; Li, Shangxi1; Liu, Yuxia1; Wang, Wenhua1; Zhou, Weihong1,2 | |
| 发表期刊 | ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
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| 2024-07-01 | |
| 卷号 | 969期号:2 |
| DOI | 10.3847/1538-4357/ad4551 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 摘要 | Forecasting the amplitude and timing of the sunspot cycle is highly important for solar physics and space weather applications, but high-precision prediction of solar magnetic activity has remained an outstanding challenge. The Informer model, as the most advanced deep learning technique, is an ideal approach for predicting solar activity cycle. Using the whole-disk sunspot numbers (SSNs) between 1749 and 2023 and the hemispheric SSNs between 1992 and 2023, the amplitudes and timings of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are predicted by the Informer model. The main results are the following: (1) the activity levels of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 continue being weak-moderate cycles with their strengths stronger than Solar Cycle 24, implying that the long-term solar variability is significantly modulated in length and magnitude by the Gleissberg century cycle; (2) the Gnevyshev peaks of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are clearly observed with a higher value in the second peak, suggesting that the numbers of the large sunspot groups are greater compared to the small sunspot groups in these two cycles; and (3) during Solar Cycle 25, the activity level in the southern hemisphere is predicted to be stronger than that in the northern one, revealing significant asymmetry and asynchronization between the two hemispheres. Our analysis results show that solar cycle predictions can be made more accurate if performed separately for each hemisphere. Furthermore, Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are likely to be weak-moderate cycles, in agreement with the precursor-based and model-based prediction methods. |
| 资助项目 | National Nature Science Foundation of China[61561053]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202401AU070026]; Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2023J0624]; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2024Y469] |
| 项目资助者 | National Nature Science Foundation of China[61561053] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007, 202401AU070026] ; Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Scientific Research Foundation Project of Yunnan Education Department[2023J0624, 2024Y469] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 学科领域 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 出版地 | TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND |
| ISSN | 0004-637X |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001262686400001 |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 关键词[WOS] | LONG-TERM ; SUNSPOT NUMBER ; FREQUENCY-MODULATION ; RELATIVE NUMBERS ; GLEISSBERG CYCLE ; 11-YEAR CYCLE ; TIME-SERIES ; AMPLITUDE ; MAXIMUM ; FIELD |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27460 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院天体结构与演化重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, Yunnan, 650504, People's Republic of China; [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]; 2.Key Laboratory for the Structure and Evolution of Celestial Objects, Chinese Academy China of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, 650011, People's Republic of China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cao, Jie,Xu, Tingting,Deng, Linhua,et al. An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North-South Asymmetry[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2024,969(2). |
| APA | Cao, Jie.,Xu, Tingting.,Deng, Linhua.,Zhou, Xueliang.,Li, Shangxi.,...&Zhou, Weihong.(2024).An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North-South Asymmetry.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,969(2). |
| MLA | Cao, Jie,et al."An Improved Prediction of Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using the Informer Model: Gnevyshev Peaks and North-South Asymmetry".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 969.2(2024). |
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| An Improved Predicti（1400KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 请求全文 | |
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