应用天文研究组知识库

对昆明基准站坐标时间序列进行了深入研究,分析了时间序列的一些特征及其产生的原因.首先,对昆明基准站坐标时间序列进行了线性拟合,拟合结果显示其南向运动速度为21.2 mm/a,东向运动速度为33.4mm/a,下降速度为4.1 mm/a.之后,用FFT滤波器平滑时间序列非线性部分,发现南北向和东西向坐标时间序列没有明显的周期变化或规律性变化,高程方向坐标时间序列有幅度达40 mm左右的年周期变化,周年波峰出现在4月份左右,波谷出现在10月份左右.对极潮和大气压对昆明站坐标的影响做了一些探讨.最后,研究了昆明基准站在水平方向的加速运动现象与云南及周边地区发生的地震之间的时间关系.发现在云南及周边地区发生大的地震以前,昆明基准站水平方向的运动会出现明显的加速运动现象.这种加速运动现象可能是预测地震的一个可参考手段.

The authors have done some research on the time series of coordinates at Kunming Fiducial Station, and meanwhile analyzed some features and the cause about time series of coordinates. Firstly, the authors have applied the linear model of time series of coordinates at Kunming Fiducial Station. The results show that the southward movement speed for 21.2mm/a, east movement speed for 33.4 mm/a, descent speed for 4.1 mm/a. Secondly, the authors have fit Non- linear part of the time series via FFT filter, and found that the east-west and south-north coordinates time series hasn't presented obvious periodic variation, and elevation direction coordinates time series has annual period variation of amplitude for 40 mm or so, the annual peak to appear in the April or so, the annual trough to appear in the October or so. The authors also have researched Pole Tide and atmospheric pressure leading to the displacement of the Kunming station. Finally, the authors have researched the relationship between the time of Kunming Fiducial Station horizontal accelerated movement and the time of the earthquake occurrence in the surrounding areas in Yunnan. The authors have found that Kunming Fiducial Station horizontal direction to produce apparent phenomenon of accelerated movement before a major earthquake in the surrounding areas in Yunnan. The phenomenon of accelerated movement can be used to predict earthquakes.