The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas

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	The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas
	Zhan LS(占腊生)1,2 ; Guo, L 1; Zhao, HJ 3; Hu, LM 4; Zhan, LS (reprint author), Jingdezhen Ceram Inst, Jingdezhen 333001, Peoples R China.
发表期刊	SOLAR PHYSICS
	2005-12
卷号	232 期号:1-2 页码:143-158
产权排序	第2完成单位
收录类别	SCI
摘要	In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12-22. We used the monthly averages Of Sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data. Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4-4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the Sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5-10 years of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly Sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable.
语种	英语
学科领域	Astronomy & Astrophysics
文章类型	Article
ISSN	0038-0938
URL	查看原文
WOS记录号	WOS:000234920400008
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目	Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]	LONG-TERM PREDICTION ; NUMBER TIME-SERIES ; SOLAR-ACTIVITY ; SIZE
引用统计	被引频次：5[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/6072
专题	太阳物理研究组
通讯作者	Zhan, LS (reprint author), Jingdezhen Ceram Inst, Jingdezhen 333001, Peoples R China.
作者单位	1.Jingdezhen Ceramic Institute, Jingdezhen, 333001, P.R. China 2.National Astronomical Observatories/Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, P.R. China 3.National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, P.R. China 4.Nanjing Engineering Technology Institute, Nanjing, P.R. China
第一作者单位	中国科学院云南天文台
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhan LS,Guo, L,Zhao, HJ,et al. The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas[J]. SOLAR PHYSICS,2005,232(1-2):143-158.
APA	Zhan LS,Guo, L,Zhao, HJ,Hu, LM,&Zhan, LS .(2005).The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas.SOLAR PHYSICS,232(1-2),143-158.
MLA	Zhan LS,et al."The shape of sunspot cycles described by monthly sunspot areas".SOLAR PHYSICS 232.1-2(2005):143-158.

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