The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles

doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ada611

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	The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles
	Tan, Baolin 1,2; Zhang, Yin 1; Huang, Jing 1,2; Ji KF(季凯帆)3,4
发表期刊	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS
	2025-01-20
卷号	979 期号:1
DOI	10.3847/2041-8213/ada611
产权排序	第3完成单位
收录类别	SCI
摘要	Solar flares stronger than X10 (S-flares, >X10) are the highest-class flares that significantly impact on the Sun's evolution and space weather. Based on observations of Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellites at soft X-ray wavelength and the daily sunspot numbers (DSNs) since 1975, we obtained some interesting and heuristic conclusions: (1) both S-flares and the more powerful extremely strong flares (ES-flares, >X14.3) mostly occur in the late phases of solar cycles (SCs) and low-latitude regions on the solar disk; (2) similar to X-class flares, the occurrence of S-flares in each SC is somewhat random, but the occurrence of ES-flares seems to be dominated by the mean DSN (V-m) and its rms deviation during the valley phase (V-d) before the cycle: the ES-flare number is strongly correlated with V-d, and the occurrence time of the first ES-flare is anticorrelated with V-d and V-m. These facts indicate that the higher the V-m and V-d, the stronger the SC, the more the ES-flares, and the earlier they occurred. We propose that the Sun may have a low-latitude active zone (LAZ), and most ES-flares are generated from the interaction between the LAZ and the newly emerging active regions. The correlations and the linear regression functions may provide an useful method to predict the occurrence of ES-flares in an upcoming SC, which derives that SC 25 will have about 2 +/- 1 ES-flares after the spring of 2027.
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000]; National Key R&D Program of China[2021YFA1600503]; National Key R&D Program of China[2022YFF0503001]; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003]
项目资助者	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB0560000] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2021YFA1600503, 2022YFF0503001] ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200003]
语种	英语
学科领域	天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系
文章类型	Article
出版者	IOP Publishing Ltd
出版地	TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
ISSN	2041-8205
URL	查看原文
WOS记录号	WOS:001398923800001
WOS研究方向	Astronomy & Astrophysics
WOS类目	Astronomy & Astrophysics
关键词[WOS]	SUNSPOT NUMBER ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; SUPERFLARES ; PREDICTION ; REGIONS ; STARS ; SUN
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
版本	出版稿
条目标识符	http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/28001
专题	天文技术实验室
作者单位	1.CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road 20A, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012, People's Republic of China; [email protected]; 2.School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People's Republic of China; 3.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 110, Kunming 650011, People's Republic of China; 4.Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science, Kunming 650216, People's Republic of China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan, Baolin,Zhang, Yin,Huang, Jing,et al. The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,2025,979(1).
APA	Tan, Baolin,Zhang, Yin,Huang, Jing,&季凯帆.(2025).The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS,979(1).
MLA	Tan, Baolin,et al."The Occurrence of Powerful Flares Stronger than X10 Class in Solar Cycles".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL LETTERS 979.1(2025).

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