| Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model | |
Liang, Yidan1,2; Zhao, Xinhua1,2,3; Xiang NB(向南彬)4 ; Feng, Shiwei5; Li, Fuyu6; Deng, Linhua7; Wan, Miao7; Li, Ran1,2
| |
| 发表期刊 | ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
 |
| 2024-12-01 | |
| 卷号 | 976期号:2 |
| DOI | 10.3847/1538-4357/ad84f0 |
| 产权排序 | 第4完成单位 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 摘要 | Coronal mass ejection (CME) is a powerful solar phenomenon that can lead to severe space weather events. Forecasting whether and when the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) will reach the Earth is very important in space weather study and forecast. At present, many different kinds of models use the near-Sun CME observations as model inputs to predict its propagation with similar prediction accuracies for large sample events. Among a series of physics-based models, the best-performing version of the shock propagation model (SPM) for large sample events, i.e., SPM3, had achieved a good forecast effect for the 23rd Solar Cycle events (1997.02-2006.12). To further evaluate SPM3, we collected CME events from 2013 January to 2023 July from the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) CME scoreboard as a new data set. SPM3 achieved a total prediction success rate of 57% for these new events with a mean absolute error of 8.93 hr and a rms error of 10.86 hr for the shock's arrival time. Interestingly, SPM3 provided better predictions for the CME/shock events during high solar activity years than low solar activity years. We also analyzed the influence of input parameters on CME propagation and found that the larger the angular width of the CME event, the higher the probability of the corresponding IP shock's reaching the Earth. Source latitude had little effect on the arrival probability of the corresponding shock, while source longitude did. The CMEs originating from around W15 degrees had the largest probability of hitting the Earth. |
| 资助项目 | National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503900]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12373059]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42474224]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203054]; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035]; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349] |
| 项目资助者 | National Key R & D Program of China[2022YFF0503900] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42030204, 12373059, 42474224, 12203054] ; Beijing Natural Science Foundation[1242035] ; The Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023NSFSC1349] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 学科领域 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing Ltd |
| 出版地 | TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND |
| ISSN | 0004-637X |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001363709400001 |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 关键词[WOS] | CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ; II RADIO-EMISSION ; INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ; EARTH ; MISSION ; WAVES ; CMES ; 1-AU ; TOOL |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27829 |
| 专题 | 抚仙湖太阳观测和研究基地 |
| 作者单位 | 1.State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, People's Republic of China; [email protected]; 2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, People's Republic of China; 3.Radio Science and Technology Center (π Center), Chengdu 610041, People's Republic of China; 4.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650216, People's Republic of China; 5.School of Space Science and Technology, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, People's Republic of China; 6.National Laboratory on Adaptive Optics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610209, People's Republic of China; 7.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming 650504, People's Republic of China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liang, Yidan,Zhao, Xinhua,Xiang NB,et al. Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2024,976(2). |
| APA | Liang, Yidan.,Zhao, Xinhua.,向南彬.,Feng, Shiwei.,Li, Fuyu.,...&Li, Ran.(2024).Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,976(2). |
| MLA | Liang, Yidan,et al."Predicting Arrival Times of the CCMC CME/Shock Events Based on the SPM3 Model".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 976.2(2024). |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Predicting Arrival T（860KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 请求全文 | |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
修改评论