| Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas | |
Zhang, Rui1,2,3; Chen, Yan-Qing1,2; Zeng, Shu-Guang1,2; Zheng, Sheng1,2; Xiao, Yan-Shan1,2; Deng LH(邓林华)4,5 ; Zeng, Xiang-Yun1,2; Huang, Yao1,2
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| 发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
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| 2024-05-03 | |
| 卷号 | 45期号:1 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s12036-024-09999-3 |
| 产权排序 | 第5完成单位 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 关键词 | Sun: activity methods: data analysis sunspots |
| 摘要 | Solar activity, such as sunspots and flares, has a great impact on humans, living beings, and technologies in the whole world. Changes in sunspots will influence high-frequency and space-navigation radio communications. Based on the full-disk, southern and northern hemispheres sunspot areas (SAs) data in 1874-2023 from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA, extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to predict the trend of the 25th and 26th solar cycles (SCs) in this work. Two methods with EVT, the block maxima (BM) approach and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, are employed to research solar extreme events. The former method focuses on each block's maximum sunspot areas value and is applied for the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The latter method aims to select the extreme values exceeding a threshold value and is used to obtain the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. It is the first time that the EVT is applied on the sunspot areas data from the Royal Observatory, Greenwich (RGO) USAF/NOAA. The analysis indicates that the estimated 8-year return levels for sunspot areas are 5701 and 6258 using the two methods, while the estimated 19-year return levels are all 7165. This suggests that the trends of the 25th and 26th solar cycles will be stronger than that of the 24th solar cycle. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12203029]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11873089]; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208]; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007]; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] |
| 项目资助者 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2031202, 12203029, 11873089] ; Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science[YNSPCC202208] ; Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects[202301AV070007] ; The 'Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program' Innovation Team Project[202405AS350012] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 学科领域 | 天文学 ; 太阳与太阳系 |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 出版者 | INDIAN ACAD SCIENCES |
| 出版地 | C V RAMAN AVENUE, SADASHIVANAGAR, P B #8005, BANGALORE 560 080, INDIA |
| ISSN | 0250-6335 |
| URL | 查看原文 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001216112900001 |
| WOS研究方向 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| WOS类目 | Astronomy & Astrophysics |
| 关键词[WOS] | SOLAR-CYCLE ; MAGNETIC-FIELD ; PREDICTION ; NUMBER ; AMPLITUDE ; ROTATION ; MODELS ; SERIES |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/27177 |
| 专题 | 抚仙湖太阳观测和研究基地 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Center of Astronomy and Space Sciences, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China; 2.College of Science, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, People’s Republic of China; 3.Yunnan Key Laboratory of the Solar Physics and Space Science, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China; 4.School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming, 650504, People’s Republic of China; 5.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650216, People’s Republic of China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Rui,Chen, Yan-Qing,Zeng, Shu-Guang,et al. Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas[J]. JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,2024,45(1). |
| APA | Zhang, Rui.,Chen, Yan-Qing.,Zeng, Shu-Guang.,Zheng, Sheng.,Xiao, Yan-Shan.,...&Huang, Yao.(2024).Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas.JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY,45(1). |
| MLA | Zhang, Rui,et al."Extreme value theory applied to long-term sunspot areas".JOURNAL OF ASTROPHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY 45.1(2024). |
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| Extreme value theory（1706KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 请求全文 | |
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